Embraer has released its 2015-2034 Market Outlook, which details forecasted deliveries of new aircraft over the next twenty years. The report focuses on the 70 to 130-seat capacity category which is valued at US$300 billion during that period. Embraer projects deliveries of 6,350 jets - 2,250 units in the 70 to 90-seat segment and 4,100 units in the 90 to 130-seat segment.
The 70 to 130-seat jet world fleet-in-service will increase from 2,590 aircraft in 2014 to 6,490 by 2034, the fastest growing among all aircraft seat segments. Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 39% of new deliveries and 61% will represent market growth.
70 to 130-Seat Jet Deliveries – Market Forecast by Region
The capacity discipline strategy followed by North American carriers has proven to be very effective in generating higher profits. As airlines become more attractive to investors, Embraer also sees a shift in the main business goals from unit cost and market share to unit profit and return on investment.
“Right-sized aircraft can regularly generate higher revenue and profit per seat since they have fewer available seats allocated for low-fare passengers. High efficiency of assets is essential to sound financial performance. Those attributes — combined with hub-and-spoke efficiency, narrow-body aircraft complement and new market development — will generate significant demand for new aircraft in the segment”, explained Paulo Cesar Silva, President & CEO, Embraer Commercial Aviation.
Worldwide demand for air transport, measured by revenue passenger kilometers, will increase 2.6 fold at an average of 4.9% annually through 2034. China and the Middle East will be the fastest-growing markets with an average annual RPK growth rate of around 7.0%, followed by the emerging regions of Latin America with 5.9%, Africa with 5.4%, Asia Pacific and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with around 5.0% and the mature markets of Europe and North America with 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively.