Last year at this time, The NPD Group reported year-on-year growth in demand for toys in the run-up to Christmas. However, the latest research from NPD to the end of November shows a different picture for 2021.
Compared to 2020, when lockdowns powered a bumper year for the toy sector, sales value to date has been more muted, down 4.7%, with sales volume down 0.8%. However, for context, if we compare those sales to 2019, a ‘normal’ year, then value sales are up 3.9%, with many consumers yet to buy their toys for the big day.
Melissa Symonds, Executive Director, UK Toys at The NPD Group says: “The pandemic accelerated the changes to the types of toys we buy and how we buy them. Sales of building sets and games and puzzles continue to be strong, and the online channel has experienced a boost in sales, particularly for higher-priced items. However, despite warnings from the trade of supply chain shortages and early sell-outs, many shoppers have clearly left their toy buying to the last minute and we saw a boost to the sector during Black Friday. Brits still expect price cuts and deals on toys, and we believe many are waiting until the last few weeks to buy just before Christmas.”
Black Friday kick-started seasonal shopping
Black Friday 2021 posted a 4% hike in sales year-on-year with demand for the highest-priced toys particularly strong. Six items in the top 10 best sellers cost over £50, and some considerably more. Overall, the average sales price this year has risen 7.7% since 2019 from £9.01 per toy to £9.70.
Top-sellers Black Friday Week in Sterling (week ending 27th November 2021)
| Rank | Manufacturer | Toy |
| 1 | MATTEL | BARBIE DREAMHOUSE |
| 2 | THE LEGO GROUP | CREATOR GHOSTBUSTERS ECTO 1 |
| 3 | THE LEGO GROUP | MARVEL STUDIOS THE INFINITY SAGA INFINITY GAUNTLET |
| 4 | THE LEGO GROUP | HARRY POTTER HOGWARTS EXPRESS |
| 5 | VTECH | KIDIZOOM DUO DX |
| 6 | MOOSE TOYS | MY MAGIC MIXIES |
| 7 | THE LEGO GROUP | TECHNIC LAMBORGHINI SIAN FKP 37 |
| 8 | THE LEGO GROUP | TECHNIC MCLAREN SENNA GTR |
| 9 | MATTEL | BARBIE 3 IN 1 DREAMCAMPER |
| 10 | THE LEGO GROUP | STAR WARS DARTH VADER HELMET |
| SOURCE: THE NPD GROUP /RETAIL TRACKING SERVICE |
The shift to buying toys online accelerated during the pandemic
The NPD Group has reported over the years how UK consumers have been slowly shifting to the online channel as their preferred method for purchasing toys. The pandemic accelerated that trend. With store closures early in 2020 and in the run up to Christmas, toy buyers went online. In the last quarter of 2020, the online channel accounted for 58% of all sales, versus 42% in 2019.
Analysis of toys purchased online shows that these are focused buyers on a mission to find specific higher-priced items and then heading straight to the virtual checkout. With declining footfall in physical stores and little browsing online, impulse buys of toys priced £20 or less have suffered, explaining the decline in sales at these price points observed this year.
Changing categories: Trading card games double and the return of Plush
In contrast to the significant growth in sales of some toy categories last year, looking at 2021 in isolation would suggest that some have experienced a dip this year. However, when compared to 2019 – a ‘normal’ year – we can see that Building Sets are up 25%, Puzzles have increased 24% and Board Games 15%.
We’ve also seen the rise of a new phenomenon – strategic trading card games – where sales have doubled since 2020. This is primarily driven by Pokemon, but others are growing in popularity.
Traditionally a strong seller, sales of plush toys suffered in 2020 amidst store closures. This year with shops open, sales have bounced back and are up 9%. Another category on the rise is Vehicles (+7% year-on-year), with Hot Wheels driving the category followed by Monster Jam.
Melissa Symonds concludes: “It’s no exaggeration to say we went mad for toys in 2020, and as a result, comparing sales in 2021 with last year can skew the picture of what is really going on. The toy sector is changing as consumers choose new favorite categories, buy more online and opt for higher-priced toys. The good news is comparing sector performance this year to date with 2019, we can see that almost half of the gains made in 2020 have been retained – and a last-minute surge to Christmas offers the hope of a good year overall.”
