The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Hotel and Tourism Management (PolyU) released their joint publication, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017, today.
The new forecasts on the complete visitor economy will make it easier for tourism organisations to anticipate demand trends and manage supply.
For the first time, PATA's Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 have been produced in collaboration with The Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Hotel and Tourism Management. The annual and quarterly forecasts cover a five-year horizon (up from three) and include price elasticity variables for most of the destinations covered.
High-level snapshots from the forecasts show that:
• Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will continue to grow with an average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the period 2013-2017 and reach 581 million by 2017
• Northeast Asia will maintain a dominant position in the inbound market of Asia Pacific, and its market share will reach 53.52% by 2017
• China will continue to be the top inbound destination in the Asia Pacific, peaking at 147.4 million visitors in 2017
• Hong Kong SAR will surpass the USA to be the second largest inbound destination in Asia Pacific in 2015
• Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific from China will exceed 100 million by 2015
• Cambodia, the Maldives, Chinese Taipei, Bhutan and Mongolia are the top five fastest growing destinations in terms of visitor arrivals over the period 2013-2017.
Taken together these projections provide essential information for tourism planners and operators alike.
The forecasts aim to help destinations set strategy for the coming years by supporting the complete visitor economy in both long-term decision and policy making by predicting arrivals, tourism receipts and departures according to country/region of origins for 41 destinations.
“I am delighted to recommend these next generation forecasts to PATA members and associates. The scope and quality of the forecasts will add value to our many different members across 17 time zones and many different functional groups,” said Mr Martin J Craigs, PATA CEO.
“We are very pleased to be part of the new PATA NextGen forecasting initiative, as transferring our knowledge to practice has been high on our school's research agenda,” said Professor Kaye Chon, Dean of the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
Published annually with a quarterly breakdown, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 will include information about visitor arrivals to select PATA member economies from key source markets, visitor expenditures in PATA member economies, and visitor departures of member economies. The annual edition of the forecasts will also feature reports analysing the forecasts and their implications, taking into account particular trends for certain regions.
Though it is clear that demand for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific is growing, it is the details shown by forecasts of travel demand that will guide the visitor economy in the measurement of tourist arrivals and expenditure. Forecasts can help justify decision-making in terms of planning investments in visitor infrastructure, human resource management, marketing resource allocation decisions and new product development.
The forecasts have been created using a combination of statistical and judgmental methodologies, with a view to generating more accurate and reliable forecasts. In other words, this forecasting system incorporates advanced econometric techniques as well as expert opinion in forecasting the demand for travel from various source markets to destinations within the Asia Pacific region. The outputs of this forecasting system will provide useful information on the future trends of the complete visitor economy (measured by tourist arrivals, departures and tourist expenditures).PATA government members and Premier Partners will have access to the forecasts included in their membership benefits through PATA's insights tool, PATAmPOWER. Other members may purchase the forecasts. Customized forecasts are also available upon request, for an additional fee.