Chinese airlines have been grabbing a larger slice of the China-Europe air travel market as their European counterparts start to leave the Chinese market, as reported on CNA.com.
Observers note the move benefits air travellers as it adds direct flight options between Chinese and European cities, at more competitive prices.
European airlines reduce capacity to China
Over the past year, numerous European airlines have reduced or discontinued their routes to Chinese cities, attributing the decision to rising costs and challenging market conditions including poor demand.
Since the beginning of 2024, airlines such as KLM, Virgin Atlantic, British Airways, Lufthansa, and LOT Polish Airlines have either reduced their services to China or suspended their routes altogether.
In November 2024, Scandinavian Airlines marked the end of its 36-year presence in China with its final flight between Shanghai and Copenhagen. This leaves Air China as the sole airline providing direct flights between Denmark and the Chinese mainland.
Only seven European carriers remain on China-Europe routes, down from 14 in 2019, according to Caixin Global, a Chinese business news platform in a Dec 2024 report.
Chinese airlines boosting capacity to Europe
Meanwhile, Chinese airlines are significantly boosting their capacity on China-Europe routes.
In the first half of 2024, China’s three largest carriers – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines – together offered around 4.67 million seats on these routes, according to Caixin. This marked a 21.25% increase compared to 2019 and more than double the number of seats offered in the same period last year.
Chinese airlines dominate China-Europe routes
Analysts say if a lot of the European airlines have scaled back in their capacity to China, then the Chinese airlines are going to try to make up some of the difference in that, depending on availability and traffic rights. It would also create pressure as the slots will be lost in the next year if they are not utilised.
In Q3 2024, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) approved several new routes to European cities for China’s major airlines, including services to Bucharest, Dublin, Edinburgh and Geneva.
This expansion builds on other route additions in the same period, such as Air China’s Chengdu-Milan service, China Eastern Airlines’ direct flight from Shanghai to Marseille, and China Southern Airlines’ Guangzhou-Budapest route.
Chinese airlines now dominate the China-Europe route market, according to industry data.
Between Nov 27 and Dec 3, a total of 855 flights were operated between China and Europe, reflecting a 21.6% increase year-on-year, as reported by aviation data platform DAST. Notably, over 84% of these flights were operated by Chinese carriers, a significant rise from approximately 60% in 2019.
Access to Russian airspace
Uneven access to Russian airspace has been the primary driving factor of European airlines retreating while Chinese carriers move forward, observers note.
Russia barred European airlines and other carriers from its airspace in Feb 2022 in a retaliatory response to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three years on, Russia remains a no-fly zone for European airlines.
This has forced European airlines to take lengthy and costly detours, significantly increasing flight times and operational expenses. Since Chinese airlines are unaffected by Russian airspace restrictions, they can continue flying the shortest routes between China and Europe, offering lower prices and more competitive services as reported by Simple Flying.
Virgin Atlantic noted that rerouting flights from London to Shanghai around Russia adds up to two hours to the journey, significantly increasing fuel costs. On top of that, the airline has to deploy more flight crew, further driving up operational expenses.
Scandinavian Airlines flights from Shanghai to Copenhagen typically took around 11 hours. Following the rerouting, its final flight in November stretched to over 15 hours.
China to become world’s largest air travel market
China’s domestic air travel market will surpass that of the United States to become the world’s largest by 2043. It will also more than double its current commercial airplane fleet size, fueled by ever-growing demand, Boeing said in a report by China Daily.
As China’s economy and air traffic continue to grow, its commercial fleet size will grow by 4.1 percent annually over the next two decades to 9,740 jets by 2043, and more than half of the new deliveries will be used to meet growing demand.
Chinese airlines have also been building up capacity for the United States. But progress on the American front has been limited as post-pandemic recovery remains sluggish, while COVID-era flight caps on Chinese carriers have not been fully eased.
