Last-minute flights are often considered a traveler’s worst-case scenario—expensive, stressful, and risky. But surprising new data suggests that booking close to your departure date might not be such a bad idea after all.
A recent study by Upgraded Points analyzed over 21,000 flights across 10 of the busiest U.S. domestic routes to determine how last-minute prices actually compare to advance bookings. The results defy expectations. On average, last-minute flights were 8.3% cheaper than those booked earlier, challenging the long-standing belief that early booking always saves money.
Budget-conscious travelers often aim to book weeks or months in advance, fearing that waiting will lead to inflated fares. However, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. The average cost of a last-minute one-way flight came in at $228.21—but that figure varied significantly by airline and route.
Among airlines, budget carriers led the pack in offering affordable last-minute fares. Spirit Airlines topped the list with an average fare of $151.53, followed by Frontier Airlines at $160.89. Hawaiian Airlines came in third at $190.19, thanks in part to the frequency of short-haul inter-island flights like Honolulu to Maui. Rounding out the top five were Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines, with prices just above $210.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, full-service airlines charged significantly more. JetBlue recorded the highest last-minute fares, averaging $310.15 per one-way ticket. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines followed, each hovering between $236 and $288. The higher costs can be attributed to premium services, fewer discounts, and dynamic pricing models that penalize late bookers.
Interestingly, when comparing last-minute prices to advance bookings, some airlines actually reversed expectations. Alaska Airlines offered the biggest savings, with last-minute fares averaging 22.6% less than advance tickets. Southwest came in at -8.2%, Frontier at -3.6%, and Spirit at -3.1%. Even American Airlines showed a small decrease at -0.8%.
Meanwhile, airlines like JetBlue and Hawaiian Airlines followed more traditional pricing strategies. JetBlue charged nearly 30% more for last-minute fares, while Hawaiian tickets rose by 19.3%. United Airlines saw a 15.6% increase, and Delta’s last-minute flights cost 1.2% more on average.
The study also broke down fare differences by route, offering valuable insight for travelers deciding whether to book now or wait. Routes like Las Vegas to Los Angeles saw the biggest last-minute discounts, with prices dropping by 26.8%. Other notable savings appeared on flights from New York to Los Angeles (-18.3%), Atlanta to New York (-10.8%), and Denver to Las Vegas (-10.5%).
Short-haul routes such as Honolulu to Maui ($129.69) and Los Angeles to San Francisco ($187.00) tended to offer more favorable last-minute fares, likely due to high frequency and strong competition among carriers. Major city pairs with high demand, like Atlanta to LaGuardia or LaGuardia to Chicago, also saw minimal last-minute price hikes or even slight discounts.
However, not all routes followed the same pattern. Flights from Denver to Chicago (+7.7%) and Denver to Phoenix (+2.1%) were noticeably more expensive when booked close to departure. These routes may have fewer daily flights or less flexibility in capacity, pushing prices up for late buyers.
At the high end, New York to Los Angeles remained one of the most expensive routes for last-minute travel, averaging $327.12 per ticket. Denver also showed up frequently among the highest-cost last-minute routes, suggesting that certain hubs carry consistently premium pricing due to limited low-cost competition or seasonal factors.
So, what does all this mean for travelers hoping to save money without booking months ahead? Flexibility is key. If you’re flying a short route serviced by budget carriers—like Las Vegas to Los Angeles or Atlanta to New York—waiting to book might actually work in your favor. But if you’re planning a transcontinental trip or departing from a city like Denver, early booking still pays off.
The study by Upgraded Points ultimately reveals that the relationship between timing and ticket cost is more complex than many travelers assume. While booking in advance can offer peace of mind, last-minute flights aren’t the guaranteed wallet-busters they were once thought to be.
Whether you’re a frequent flier or a spontaneous adventurer, understanding the nuances of airline pricing can lead to smarter travel decisions—and maybe even a few surprise savings along the way.
Have you ever scored a great last-minute flight deal? Share your tips or experiences with fellow travelers in the comments below.
