The steady growth in millionaire migration continues in 2023. The leading international residence and citizenship advisory firm analyzed wealth and investment migration trends worldwide.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023, the UK is projected to lose 3,200 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in 2023, which is higher than the projected 3,000 net loss for Russia. The report tracks wealth and investment migration trends worldwide and shows that the UK will be the third-biggest loser of millionaires globally after China and India. Last year, the UK saw a net exodus of 1,600 millionaires, making the anticipated HNWI flight for 2023 double the previous year. The report features the latest net inflows and outflows of dollar millionaires and focuses only on those who have truly moved, staying in their new country for more than six months a year.
Australia is expected to attract the highest net inflow of HNWIs in 2023 at 5,200, and although the UAE drops into 2nd place following its record-breaking influx in 2022, it is still expected to enjoy an impressive net arrival of 4,500 new millionaires this year. Singapore ranks 3rd with a net inflow of 3,200 HNWIs, its highest on record, followed the US with an expected net influx of 2,100 millionaires.
Switzerland (net inflow of 1,800) and Canada (1,600) are in 5th and 6th place, respectively, with Greece (1,200), France (1,000 — double last year’s net intake of 500 millionaires), Portugal (800), and New Zealand (700) all making it onto this year’s Top 10 list for net HNWI inflows. Israel is predicted to tumble out of the Top 10 with its net inflow of millionaires set to almost halve this year to just 600 compared to 1,100 in 2022.
Brexit a bad bet for Britain, and US appeal waning
The UK’s peak net outflow year was 2017, following the Brexit referendum in 2016. Prior to this, the country enjoyed net positive inflows of HNWIs. While net losses dropped slightly between 2017 and 2019, the 2023 forecast indicates a far more significant millionaire exit is currently underway.
The appeal of another financial giant, the US, is also dwindling fast. America is notably less popular among migrating millionaires today than pre-Covid, perhaps owing in part to the threat of higher taxes. The country still attracts more HNWIs than it loses to emigration, with a net inflow of 2,100 projected for 2023, although this is a staggering drop from 2019 levels, which saw a net inflow of 10,800 millionaires.
The other big losers in 2023
As it has for the past decade, China continues to lose the largest numbers of dollar millionaires each year to migration. Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, explains that “general wealth growth in China has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual. China’s economy grew strongly from 2000 to 2017, but wealth and millionaire growth in the country has been negligible since then (when measured in US-dollar terms)”.
Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year (7,500) and as Amoils points out, “these outflows are not particularly concerning as India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration.” Singh-Dalal adds that “prohibitive tax legislation coupled with convoluted, complex rules relating to outbound remittances that are open to misinterpretation and abuse, are but a few issues that have triggered the trend of investment migration from India”.
The UK (3,200) and Russia (3000 vs 8,500 in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine) sit in 3rd and 4th place respectively, with Brazil (1,200), Hong Kong (SAR China) (1,000 — less than half the actual net outflow in 2022), South Korea (800 — double the net outflow in 2022), Mexico (700), South Africa (500), and Japan (300 compared to last year’s net loss of 100) making up the rest of the Top 10 biggest millionaire losers forecast for 2023.
Relentless uncertainty fuels demand
Henley & Partners received the highest number of investment migration program enquiries on record in the first quarter of 2023 — an increase of 36% compared to the previous quarter, and a remarkable 47% higher than the same period in 2022, which was itself a record-breaking year. The top two nationalities currently driving demand are Indians and Americans, with Brits and South Africans remaining in the Top 10 as they have done for the last five years.
Popular investment migration pathways
Portugal’s Golden Residence Permit Program remains the most popular overall in 2023, followed by Austria’s citizenship by investment offering and St. Kitts and Nevis’s Citizenship by Investment Program. Next is Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program, the fastest way for entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals to access Canadian residence and the North American market. Rising in popularity this year and last in the top five is Italy’s Residence by Investment Program, with Greece’s Golden Visa Program and Spain’s Residence by Investment Program hot on the heels of their Mediterranean counterpart.
