Over six months have passed since the onset of the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s military efforts to dismantle the armed group in Gaza are still ongoing.
Despite the shift in global attention towards the recent direct conflict with Iran, Israel’s operations in Gaza persist with the strategic goal of disbanding Hamas, which had controlled the territory prior to the conflict. The Israeli military initiated its assault following the deadly attacks by Hamas on October 7, which resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli casualties.
The stated objectives of Israel’s military actions include defeating Hamas and rescuing around 100 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza. According to local health officials, the conflict has resulted in over 33,000 deaths, and the United Nations has reported that the local population is nearing famine conditions.
Compounding the regional instability, on April 13, 2024, Iran conducted its first direct attack on Israel from its own territory. This aggressive move involved a barrage of drones, responding to what Iran perceived as provocations, including a suspected Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of several Iranian Revolutionary Guards, including two high-ranking officers.
Amid these developments, during his visit to Israel on April 17, 2024, Britain’s Foreign Minister, David Cameron, expressed serious concerns about the possibility of further escalation in the region.
Immediate Effects on Travel Safety and Security
Countries such as France, Italy, India, Russia, Poland, the United States, and the United Kingdom have already issued travel warnings to their citizens, advising against travel to Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, and, in some instances, the broader region.
Impact on Air Travel and Transportation
The escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to significant disruptions in air travel, including the closure of airspace and rerouting of flights. These disruptions are impacting both international travel to and from the region and local transportation within the conflict zones.
British low-cost carrier easyJet has suspended all flights to Israel until October 27 due to safety concerns. Similarly, Wizz Air has resumed flights to Tel Aviv but has warned passengers of potential schedule changes and continues to monitor the situation closely.
Dutch airline KLM has canceled flights to Israel until April 21 and has also opted not to fly over Iran and Israel, prioritizing the safety of its routes. Air India has followed suit, temporarily suspending flights to and from Tel Aviv, with its Tuesday service officially listed as canceled.
Lufthansa Group from Germany announced it had resumed flights to Tel Aviv, Amman in Jordan, and Irbil in Iraq as of Tuesday. However, it canceled flights to Tehran, Iran, and Beirut up until Thursday and is currently avoiding Iranian airspace.
In the United States, United Airlines, the only U.S. airline with direct flights to Israel, has suspended its operations and is offering full refunds to customers with bookings to Tel Aviv before May 1. Air Canada has also alerted passengers to expect delays for its services to Israel.
Travelers are strongly advised to stay updated with their airlines as the situation remains fluid, affecting various international routes, including flights from China to Iran and services to Jordan. The ongoing conflict has broader implications, influencing key air routes that traverse the Middle East, particularly those connecting Europe to Asia.
Economic Impact on the Tourism Industry
The escalating tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel, Gaza, and Iran have significant economic implications for the tourism industry in the region.
Key tourist destinations in Israel, such as Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and the Dead Sea, are experiencing direct financial repercussions as international travelers cancel or defer their plans due to safety concerns.
Neighboring countries that are popular tourist destinations, including Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon, also feel the impact. These areas rely heavily on tourism for economic stability, and the perceived risk of instability or conflict can deter tourists, leading to a decrease in tourist arrivals and spending.
This decline not only affects hotels, restaurants, and local attractions but also has a cascading effect on employment and government revenue derived from tourism-related taxes and fees.
The potential long-term effects on the regional economy if the conflict continues could be severe.
Prolonged instability tends to erode the tourism sector’s ability to rebound, leading to long-term job losses and business closures.
Additionally, ongoing conflicts can redirect investment and resources away from tourism development to more immediate conflict-related needs, stunting growth in the travel and tourism sector.
As tourism declines, there is likely to be a decrease in foreign exchange earnings which are crucial for maintaining the balance of payments. If the conflict widens, Israel, one of America’s closest allies, could be facing a multifront conflict and the economic effects could extend to the United States and across the world, according to the Washington Examiner.
Beyond just energy prices, a war between Israel and Iran would roil global markets. The specter of a war between Israel and Iran would cause stocks to fall. On Monday, as investors awaited Israel’s response, the S&P 500 fell more than 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost about 1.5% in total value.
If a conflict were to spiral out of control, it could usher in a global recession.
Response from the Tourism Sector
Şükrü Cimrin, a board member of the Turkiye Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) and Vice President of ALTİD (Alanya Touristic Hoteliers Association), emphasized the agency’s high maneuverability in crises, expressing the hope that tensions between Iran and Israel would end.
Cimrin said, “If the mutual missile firings or other physical attacks between the two countries continue, it could negatively influence the decisions of some of our tourists. The biggest factor in this is our border adjacency with Iran. If we analyze the situation, we can say that Iran is not in favor of conflict, but it had to respond to Israel.”
Currently, the demand for vacations to Turkey for the summer of 2024 is continuing positively. “We aim to set a new record by exceeding 60 million tourists in 2024,” he added.
Mehmet Dahaoğlu, Vice President of the Alanya Tourism Promotion Foundation (ALTAV), said, “The war is spreading throughout the Middle East. Some of our citizens couldn’t return from their vacations because countries closed their airspaces. I don’t think our country will be involved in the war. Considering our geographic distance from the Middle East, it is clear how far we are from the conflict.
I hope that remains the case because if we consider how tourism is affected by every negativity, even the possibility of a conflict nearby could end the season before it even starts. I hope the war subsides without escalating further, and things normalize soon.”
Case Studies of Previous Conflicts and Their Impact on Tourism
The tourism sector plays a significant role in the development of countries in many respects; however, it is affected by environmental events such as war, terror, political and economic crises.
The oil crisis, which emerged with the sudden rise in oil prices in 1974, the Chernobyl incident in 1986, and the Iraq War in 1991, the political instability in the region during the 1990s and international terrorism, the Iraq War in 2003, the SARS outbreak, and the poor economic performance both in the global economy and in European countries, the Sahara dispute in Morocco, the civil war in Lebanon, the conflicts between Israel and Palestine, tensions between Turkey and Israel, the economic crisis of 2008, unexpected protest events in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Countries (Arab Spring), civil wars, and coup movements have all affected the tourism of Arab countries along with the rest of the world.
By examining historical conflicts and their repercussions on tourist destinations within the region, we can gain insights into recovery timelines as well as effective strategies.
Tourism in Egypt Post-Arab Spring
Following the Arab Spring in 2011, Egypt’s tourism industry experienced a significant downturn due to political unrest. Visitor numbers, which peaked at 14 million in 2010, plummeted by more than a third the following year. It took until 2019 for tourism figures to rebound to near pre-Arab Spring levels.
The Egyptian government and tourism sector implemented comprehensive marketing campaigns focusing on safety and stability to reassure potential tourists. Enhancements in airport security and collaboration with international tourism and security advisors helped gradually restore international confidence.
Lebanon’s Tourism During and After the 2006 Lebanon War
The 2006 Lebanon War led to a sharp decline in tourism, a vital part of Lebanon’s economy. The sector began to recover in the subsequent years, seeing a robust rebound by 2009.
Lebanon’s tourism recovery strategy included diversifying tourism offerings beyond Beirut, promoting rural and eco-tourism, and capitalizing on the Lebanese diaspora to boost visitor numbers.
The government also focused on rebuilding infrastructure and hosting international events to draw global attention.
Closing Remarks
The tourism industry in the Middle East has faced numerous challenges over the years, from political unrest and economic crises to natural disasters and pandemics.
These events have underscored the potential impacts and ongoing risks associated with operating in a region often at the center of geopolitical tensions. However, the resilience of the travel sector in the Middle East has been remarkable, demonstrating its ability to recover and even thrive despite these adversities.
The most recent events came at a time when tourism in the Middle East was on a robust uptick from the height of the pandemic.
In 2023, the Middle East led the global travel recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.
As the Middle East continues to navigate through periods of instability, the lessons learned from past experiences will be invaluable in shaping a more resilient tourism industry for the future.
The ability of this region to manage crises and bounce back stronger is a testament to the enduring appeal of its rich cultural heritage, breathtaking landscapes, and the warm hospitality that defines its people.
