Global air travel demand is expected to more than double by 2050, according to new projections from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The industry body forecasts that demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), up from 9 trillion RPKs recorded in 2024.
The report, based on IATA’s Long Term Demand Projections (LTDP), outlines a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% between 2024 and 2050. Under alternative scenarios, demand could reach as high as 21.9 trillion RPKs or as low as 19.5 trillion RPKs, depending on economic growth, energy transition trends, and aviation capacity development.
“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Growth will not be evenly distributed, with emerging markets expected to lead the expansion. Asia Pacific and Africa are forecast to be the fastest growing regions, reflecting strong population growth, rising incomes, and expanding connectivity.
According to the report, regional growth rates between 2024 and 2050 include:
- Asia Pacific: 3.8% CAGR
- Africa: 3.6% CAGR
- North America: 2.8% CAGR
- Europe: 2.5% CAGR
The fastest growing aviation markets are concentrated in developing regions, highlighting shifting global travel patterns and the increasing importance of cross-regional connectivity.
Key high-growth markets identified in the report include:
- Intra Africa: 4.9% CAGR
- Africa–Asia Pacific: 4.5% CAGR
- Asia Pacific–Middle East: 3.9% CAGR
- Intra Asia Pacific: 3.9% CAGR
- Africa–North America: 3.8% CAGR
The findings also highlight long-term structural changes in global aviation. The COVID 19 pandemic caused a lasting shift in demand, with passenger traffic not expected to fully return to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory by 2050, even under high growth scenarios.
At the same time, the pace of growth is gradually slowing compared with previous decades. Historical data shows global air travel demand grew at an average of 6.1% annually between 1972 and 1998, slowing to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024, and projected to moderate further to 3.1% through 2050.
Despite this slowdown, absolute passenger volumes are expected to rise significantly, driven by economic expansion, population growth, and increased accessibility to air travel worldwide. The report also underlines the importance of infrastructure investment, regulatory alignment, and sustainable energy development to support long-term growth.
