The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting airline operations, with carriers cutting millions of seats and adjusting schedules as the situation continues to evolve. Four weeks after the initial disruption, approximately 1.7 million scheduled seats have been removed, representing around one-third of the capacity originally planned for the last week of February.
Current schedules suggest weekly capacity could recover to around 4.4 million seats, but further reductions are expected, with levels likely to stabilise closer to 3.6 million in the near term. Airlines across the region and beyond are continuing to revise operations as they respond to changing conditions and operational challenges.
In the immediate aftermath of the disruption, airline operations were marked by what has been described as “controlled confusion”, with aircraft out of position, crews stranded and passengers facing delays and limited information as carriers worked to reorganise schedules.
The scale of capacity cuts varies across airlines. Saudi-based carriers are operating close to normal schedules due to strong domestic demand, while major hub airlines have implemented significant reductions compared to pre-conflict levels. Emirates has reduced capacity by 40%, Qatar Airways by 62%, Etihad by 50% and Air Arabia by 64% during the week commencing 23 March, according to OAG.
A total of 44 airlines that had planned to operate in the region have removed all capacity through to the end of April, accounting for around 245,000 seats per week. Looking further ahead, several international carriers have also reduced their schedules, with Wizz Air cancelling more than 450 flights and British Airways cutting 266 services that had previously been scheduled.
Despite disruption to connectivity through the Middle East, there has been limited evidence of airlines significantly increasing flights between Asia and Europe to compensate. While some adjustments have been made, the overall response has been modest.
Singapore Airlines has added 13 additional services to London Gatwick for May, while Turkish Airlines has scheduled 35 extra flights across Asian routes including Beijing and Bangkok compared to February levels. However, most carriers have avoided large-scale changes due to the operational complexity and short-term commercial uncertainty involved.
Airlines generally lack spare aircraft and crew capacity to rapidly redeploy services between markets, particularly when demand patterns remain uncertain. As a result, most operators have opted to maintain existing plans rather than introduce major new routes or frequencies.
The aviation sector is familiar with managing external shocks, and the current disruption reflects a pattern seen in previous crises. Industry expectations remain focused on a gradual return to normal operations once conditions stabilise.
For airlines based in the Middle East, a recovery in schedules is likely to be swift once the situation improves, restoring the region’s role as a major global transit hub. For international carriers, however, the return may be more gradual, with some routes taking months rather than weeks to resume.
