Nine major airports across the Middle East operated at just 53% of their pre-conflict scheduled flights in March and April 2026, as the ongoing Gulf military conflict severed one of the world’s busiest aviation corridors, according to a new report by Airports Council International Asia-Pacific and Middle East (ACI APAC & MID).
The assessment, conducted in partnership with Flare Aviation Consulting, estimates a revenue shortfall of US$900 million to US$1 billion over the two-month period, against a budgeted target of US$1.3 billion to US$1.4 billion. The loss represents 55% of anticipated revenues for the affected hubs.
Scale of Disruption
An estimated 27 million passengers across the nine airports did not travel as planned during March and April 2026, representing a year-on-year decline of 54%. March recorded the sharpest impact, with 14 million passengers lost, a 57% year-on-year reduction. April saw a further 13 million passengers lost, a 50% decline compared to the same period in 2025.
Cargo operations sustained equally severe disruption. The nine airports collectively handled 571,000 tonnes of freight across the two months, against 1.19 million tonnes in the corresponding period of 2025, a loss of approximately 620,000 tonnes, or 52% year-on-year. March was the worst month for cargo, with volumes down 59% year-on-year at 259,000 tonnes. April showed early signs of partial recovery, with 312,000 tonnes handled, still 43% below the prior-year level.
The nine airports covered in the study collectively handled 324 million passengers in 2025, accounting for approximately 70% of total Middle East air traffic that year. Their disruption carries consequences across the wider global aviation network.
East-West Connectivity Severed
In 2025, approximately 197 million passengers travelled between Asia-Pacific and western destinations including Europe, the Americas and Africa, equivalent to 540,000 passengers daily. Around 18% of those, or roughly 97,000 passengers per day, connected through the affected Middle East hubs.
The restriction of Gulf airspace effectively removed nearly one-fifth of all East-West connecting capacity from the global aviation network within hours of the conflict’s onset. Operations fell to as low as 32% of scheduled capacity on the first day of the conflict before partially recovering to approximately 63% by the final week of April.
Airfares Surge on Long-Haul Routes
The disruption drove a sharp rise in airfares on Asia-West long-haul routes. Direct fares, once priced at a modest 20% premium over indirect routings via the Middle East, more than doubled in March, reaching 185% of the 2025 indirect-via-Middle East baseline.
Even by July and August, airfares to and from the Middle East were priced at an average of 50% above pre-conflict levels. The primary driver is reduced airline competition, as East-West traffic flows have shifted heavily towards European and Asian carriers, limiting capacity and pushing prices upward. Airport charges, which are regulated and remained unchanged throughout the period, have not contributed to the elevated fares.
Fuel Prices a Growing Concern
Despite the disruption in the Middle East, overall passenger traffic in Asia-Pacific remained resilient in March across most of the airports surveyed, though airports reported declines on routes serving the Middle East directly.
A separate ACI Asia-Pacific and Middle East survey covering 28 major airport operators found that rising jet fuel prices, rather than physical shortages, represent the main operational challenge facing airports. Jet fuel prices remain nearly double pre-conflict levels, while fuel stocks are described as stable for most operators. Many airports have introduced mitigation measures including contingency planning, supplier coordination and reserve stocking.
Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI Asia-Pacific and Middle East, said the scale of disruption underscores the critical role airports play as enablers of connectivity and economic growth. “The aviation ecosystem in Asia-Pacific and Middle East is proving to be resilient, but we are at a critical juncture, since a protracted instability over the summer period may have far more negative impact of the economic sustainability of the airport sector,” he said.
Baronci also warned against additional government-imposed costs on passengers. “Public policy should not add yet another layer of cost to air travel. Further increases in government-imposed levies, such as the latest passenger movement charges to passengers departing Australia, directly undermine connectivity, tourism, trade and consumer welfare,” he said.
Gradual Recovery Projected
ACI APAC & MID projects recovery will follow a gradual trajectory, describing it as a slow initial rebound followed by a longer climb back to baseline, rather than a rapid return to pre-conflict levels.
The pace of recovery will depend on coordinated airspace reopening, clearer regulatory guidance, stabilisation of fuel markets and the ability of Middle Eastern carriers to rebuild networks and restore passenger confidence.
The region served 3.9 billion passengers in 2024 and is projected to exceed 11 billion by 2054. ACI APAC & MID called on airports and governments to strengthen fuel security measures, improve contingency planning and diversify fuel supply chains to reduce single-region dependency.
