Spain is expected to face a warmer-than-usual autumn following a record-breaking summer, according to a seasonal forecast released by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
The agency reported a 60–70% probability of above-normal temperatures across the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands between September and November, and around 50% in the Canary Islands. The chances of a colder-than-average season stand at just 10%, a scenario not seen since spring 2018.
In terms of precipitation, AEMET said it is unlikely that the season will be wetter than normal in western and central Spain as well as in the Canary Islands, with only a 20% probability of higher-than-average rainfall. Instead, these regions face a 45% chance of experiencing drier conditions.
For the Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands, the forecast indicates no clear rainfall trend, suggesting high variability. The agency warned that a combination of high temperatures and potential rainfall deficits could worsen drought and water resource pressures.
Record Summer Sets Context for Autumn Outlook
The forecast comes after the hottest summer on record in Spain, with a national average temperature of 24.2°C on the peninsula, 2.1°C above the 1991–2020 reference period. In the Balearic Islands, the average reached 25.8°C, 1.5°C higher than normal, while the Canary Islands recorded 22.7°C, up 0.9°C from the average. AEMET noted that for the first time since 1961, Spain’s summer heat surpassed that of 2022, previously the hottest recorded, even if only by a tenth of a degree.
The season was also marked by extended and intense heatwaves. Spain experienced 33 days under official heatwave conditions, one of every three summer days. The longest episode lasted 17 days between June 18 and July 4, affecting 40 provinces and ranking as the third-longest and third-most extensive since at least 1975. Another major event between August 3 and 18 was classified as the second most intense in Spain’s records, affecting 42 provinces with an anomaly of 4.2°C above the norm. The Canary Islands also endured an additional heatwave.
Extreme Heat and Dry Conditions
High temperatures during the summer set new records in several locations. On August 17, Jerez de la Frontera’s airport station registered 45.8°C, while Morón de la Frontera reached 45.2°C. In Murcia, thermometers rose to 45.1°C, and Alcantarilla air base recorded 45.0°C the following day. These figures reinforced concerns over persistent and extreme heat conditions.
Rainfall levels also contributed to the climate imbalance. AEMET classified the summer of 2025 as the 14th driest since records began in 1961 and the seventh driest of the 21st century. The situation was particularly severe in Galicia, Asturias, and northern Castilla y León, where conditions reached “extremely dry” levels in parts of Galicia. The combined effect of heat and low rainfall heightened the risk and incidence of wildfires, which became a significant challenge across the country during the season.
Government Response and Climate Debate
The ongoing heat and drought have intensified discussions on Spain’s climate policy. Third Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, stressed the urgency of addressing the crisis.
“The climate emergency is a reality and requires decisive and ambitious responses,” said Sara Aagesen, Vice President for the Ecological Transition. She reaffirmed the government’s intention to work toward a state pact on climate change.
Aagesen highlighted that efforts are underway to bring political parties and institutions together to develop the agreement. However, she acknowledged challenges in securing support across the parliamentary spectrum. Some groups remain cautious, with concerns that such a pact could lead to greater centralization of powers, particularly regarding natural disaster management. Opposition from major parties including the PP and Vox, as well as hesitation from regional parties such as ERC and PNV, has so far limited progress.
Despite the uncertainty in political negotiations, the government continues to emphasize the need for coordinated responses to climate risks. The latest forecast underscores how persistent heat, combined with uncertain rainfall patterns, could further strain Spain’s environment, agriculture, and water supply in the months ahead.
