Artificial intelligence is set to fundamentally redistribute power across the global travel industry, potentially turning mobility into a privilege rather than a universal right within two decades. A new executive brief produced by travel research firm Phocuswright and ITB Berlin, based on discussions held at the inaugural Leadership Exchange in March 2026, outlines several plausible futures for travel by 2046 — and not all of them are optimistic.
The closed-door Leadership Exchange took place on March 3, 2026, at CityCube Berlin, bringing together senior travel industry leaders in a strategic think tank format under the Chatham House Rule. Four core questions drove the agenda: who owns trust in an AI-native industry, where value sits as algorithms take over, whether travel is a right or a privilege, and whether the sector will consolidate or fragment.
AI reduces friction — but reshuffles power
A clear consensus emerged from discussions: artificial intelligence will dramatically reduce the friction of travel planning and booking, but in doing so, it will fundamentally shift who holds power in the industry. Traditional intermediaries risk losing relevance, and even established brands may see their influence erode as AI agents become the dominant gateway to travel discovery and purchase.
“The travel industry is entering a structural shift unlike anything we’ve seen since the early days of digitalization,” said Dr. Mario Tobias, CEO of Messe Berlin. “With the Leadership Exchange, we created a space where decision-makers don’t just discuss the future but actively shape it. The choices we make now around trust, data and value creation will define the industry for decades to come.”
Trust becomes the new currency
As AI mediates more of the travel experience, trust is becoming fragmented and more commercially valuable than ever before. It must now be actively designed into every step of the customer journey, built through micro-interactions and human signals such as user-generated content. Industry leaders warned that multiple competing AI-driven booking channels increase the risk of serious trust failures in the near term.
“Trust is not an algorithm. There’s no single recipe, and in the future, not only companies, but also consumers will be assessed on whether they can be trusted,” said Mieke De Schepper, CEO of Sunweb Group.
Discovery as we know it is disappearing
Personalisation is emerging as the industry’s greatest opportunity in an AI-driven era, with travel experiences increasingly tailored in real time using deep data insights and individual preferences. However, this shift carries a significant cost for the traditional travel ecosystem. Brands that once commanded loyalty through marketing power may find themselves outpaced by intelligent personal agents that act entirely on behalf of the traveller.
“By 2029, discovery as we know it today will almost disappear. The real value will sit with personal agents that act on our behalf,” said Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, principal at T2Impact.
Mobility as privilege
While technology could make travel more seamless and inclusive, structural tensions risk pulling in the opposite direction. Economic inequality, geopolitical pressures and tightening regulation are expected to increasingly determine who can afford to travel at all. Overtourism is also forcing destinations to consider hard limits on access, whether through pricing or visa restrictions.
“To control immigration and overtourism, travel is becoming more of a privilege. Countries will either visa their way out of tourism or simply price people out,” said Stephen Joyce, global strategy lead at Protect Group.
Consolidation or fragmentation: the open question
The report does not offer a single forecast for 2046, but identifies a defining tension between decentralisation and concentration. AI could empower smaller, niche travel providers through hyper-personalisation, enabling them to reach highly targeted audiences that were previously inaccessible. At the same time, control over data flows could give a handful of powerful technology companies near-monopoly influence over global travel.
Participants at the Leadership Exchange agreed that the next three years will be decisive. Choices made now on data ownership, trust frameworks and technological integration will shape the trajectory of global travel for decades. As the brief concludes, the future of travel is not something to be predicted — it is something to be actively shaped.
