Businesses across the United Kingdom’s inbound visitor economy expect stable trading through the final quarter of 2025, with overall performance projected to remain in line with 2024 levels, according to UKinbound’s latest Business Barometer.
The findings reflect a broadly resilient market despite uneven demand across regions and source markets.
The survey, conducted by Qa Research in September 2025, gathered responses from tourism and hospitality operators nationwide. Members assessed expected bookings and revenue for October to December 2025 compared with the same period last year, as well as reviewed performance during summer 2025 and shared their outlook for 2026.
Bookings and Revenue Show Steady Trends
UKinbound reported that 40% of respondents anticipate Q4 2025 bookings and visitor numbers to match last year’s results, while 31% expect an increase. Similarly, 40% of businesses forecast stable revenues and 35% predict growth. Among those expecting improvement, bookings are projected to rise by an average of 16% and revenues by 14%.
Summer 2025 delivered a comparable picture, with 50% of respondents meeting their forecasts and 20% exceeding them. Several businesses attributed stronger outcomes to higher-than-expected visitor numbers and a surge in last-minute bookings. However, some members cited weaker demand from the United States and softer domestic tourism compared with previous years.
Performance across source markets continues to vary. The USA and China remain the most cited growth markets, while European performance is mixed, with some operators reporting declines in Germany, France, and Canada. More than half of respondents noted growth in at least one overseas market, but a similar share also recorded decreases elsewhere, indicating fluctuating conditions across key regions.
Outlook for 2026 Points to Cautious Optimism
Looking ahead, nearly half of UKinbound members (48%) expect to match their 2025 results next year, and 40% anticipate stronger performance in 2026. Early group bookings and steady demand from long-haul markets are driving confidence, although economic and geopolitical factors continue to shape forecasts.
Respondents highlighted rising costs, ongoing uncertainty in the US market, and international instability as the main challenges influencing next year’s trading environment. Despite these headwinds, overall sentiment remains positive, underpinned by early booking activity and sustained international interest in visiting the UK.
Joss Croft OBE, CEO of UKinbound, said “We hear that domestic tourism has been a real challenge this year, so it’s encouraging to see many of our members reporting stable trading and pockets of growth heading into the final quarter of the year. Demand from long-haul markets such as the US and China remain strong, and early signs for 2026 bookings suggest that international appetite for visiting the UK continues to build.”
“Our members are working hard to convert this demand into real economic growth for destinations right across the country, but to fully unlock the sector’s potential, we need a policy environment that helps businesses invest, compete and grow with confidence,” said Joss Croft, CEO of UKinbound.
UKinbound’s Business Barometer serves as a key indicator of confidence within the UK’s inbound tourism industry, tracking operator sentiment and market performance each quarter. The findings highlight both resilience and exposure to external pressures as businesses adapt to shifting travel patterns and consumer behavior.
Despite the challenges, the data suggests that inbound tourism remains a vital contributor to the UK’s economy. Long-haul visitors, particularly from North America and Asia, continue to play an essential role in sustaining the sector’s recovery and growth prospects. As international travel stabilizes, industry leaders anticipate gradual strengthening of bookings and revenue through 2026.
Founded in 1977, UKinbound represents more than 350 tourism businesses across the UK, including tour operators, destination management companies, and transport and accommodation providers. The association advocates for policies that support sustainable growth in inbound travel and helps members navigate changing market conditions through research and advocacy.
The Business Barometer results reinforce the need for continued policy support to maintain competitiveness amid global economic uncertainty. With early 2026 bookings already showing promise, the UK’s visitor economy is positioned for a period of steady performance, balancing cautious optimism with ongoing structural challenges.
Photo Credit: VisitBritain/Rama Knight
