International tourism grew 2% in the first quarter of 2026, with some 307 million people travelling internationally, according to the latest data from UN Tourism. That is about 6 million more arrivals than in the same period of 2025.
Travel demand held up overall, with cumulative growth of 2.5% across January and February. Performance weakened in March, however, slowing to 0.4% as the conflict in the Middle East began to weigh on the sector.
UN Tourism expects the conflict to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below its initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on how long the disruption lasts and how far it spreads. Beyond flight disruptions to, from and within the Middle East, a spike in oil prices and a jet fuel shortage in some markets are pushing up air fares and reducing flight capacity in other regions too.
More expensive travel, combined with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer destinations while also dampening overall travel demand.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on travelers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people traveling internationally, a 2% increase on last year,” said Shaikha Al Nuwais, UN Tourism Secretary-General.
Europe and Africa lead the way
Europe, the world’s largest destination region, welcomed more than 130 million international tourists in Q1 2026, a 4% increase that built on strong momentum from 2025. Some destinations gained from the redirection of tourism flows, with Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both up 4% and Central Eastern Europe rising 6%.
Africa also grew 4%, with North Africa supported by double-digit growth of 18% in March. Sub-Saharan Africa matched the regional figure with a 4% rise.
Asia and the Pacific recorded 3% growth, slower than expected due to mixed results. Oceania (+9%) and North-East Asia (+5%) performed strongly, but disruption at Middle Eastern air hubs contributed to a 27% decline in South Asia. The Americas saw arrivals rise 2%, led by Central America (+18%) but held back by South America (-1%).
In the Middle East, arrivals fell 14%, with several Gulf destinations recording sharp declines. Egypt was an exception, posting a 16% increase. The drop follows a strong post-pandemic rebound, with 2025 arrivals climbing 40% above 2019 levels.
Top performers and rising costs
Among destinations reporting growth, the best performers included Paraguay (+46%), New Caledonia (+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%) and Uzbekistan (+37%). For tourism receipts, Pakistan led with 60% growth, followed by the Republic of Korea (+38%) and Morocco (+24%).
UN Tourism’s Panel of Tourism Experts identified the Middle East conflict, high transport and accommodation costs, and wider economic factors as the three main challenges for 2026. Almost two thirds of experts (64%) said the conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their destination.
Cautious summer outlook
The UN Tourism Confidence Index points to a cautiously positive outlook for May to August 2026, which covers the Northern Hemisphere summer. Experts scored the period 105 on a scale of 0 to 200, below the 117 recorded for January to April.
Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has driven a surge in oil prices, particularly volatile jet fuel costs, adding to already elevated services inflation. In the Americas, Canada, the United States and Mexico could benefit from hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July.
Industry indicators reflected the regional split. According to IATA, international air traffic grew 4% in Q1 2026, with all regions positive except the Middle East (-16%). Global accommodation occupancy reached 64% in March, matching March 2025, though Middle East occupancy fell to 48% from 75% in January.
