Europe’s rising temperatures are no longer just a climate statistic but a growing factor that could shape how and where people choose to travel in the decades ahead.
The year 2025 was the third-warmest on record for Europe, with March marking the warmest month ever recorded for the continent, according to new data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Average temperatures reached 10.41°C, 1.17°C above the 1991–2020 reference period, with record-warm conditions spanning the eastern North Atlantic, the North Sea region including northern Britain and parts of Scandinavia, the southwestern Mediterranean and westernmost Russia.
Beyond recent records, climate modelling suggests Europe’s traditionally mild climate may gradually disappear by 2100, as every country analysed is expected to experience regular heatwaves exceeding 36.80°C, reshaping not only daily life but also long-term travel patterns.
Which European countries are projected to face the most extreme heat
Recent research by Reinders Corporation ranks France, Russia and Romania as the European countries likely to be most severely affected by future heatwaves, based on climate modelling, heatwave frequency and projected average and maximum temperatures.
“These are small but powerful indicators of how fast the global climate is shifting,” said Gerrit Jan Reinders, CEO and climate data expert at Reinders Corporation.
He added: “The same forces driving these changes are already reshaping Europe, where rising heat extremes will test the resilience of our infrastructure, public health systems and way of life.”
France sits at the top of the rankings, projected to face five heatwave events each year by the end of the century and around 115 cumulative days of extreme heat.
Average temperatures in parts of France could reach up to 37°C by 2100, with close to four months of the year potentially spent in heatwave conditions, the study suggests.
Russia ranks second, with a heatwave score of 79.92 and some of the highest projected temperatures on the continent.
The country is expected to experience two annual heatwaves, with average temperatures reaching 37.99°C and peak temperatures climbing as high as 39.71°C.
According to the research, regions historically defined by long winters and frozen landscapes could become almost unrecognisable by the century’s end.
Eastern Europe also emerges as an unexpected hotspot, with Romania ranking third, Moldova fourth and Bulgaria fifth, ahead of several Mediterranean destinations traditionally associated with extreme summer heat.
Romania and Moldova are projected to experience three heatwaves per year, lasting around 17 cumulative days each, while Bulgaria may see two annual heatwaves lasting roughly 14 cumulative days.
What this could mean for future travel choices
For travellers, the prospect of longer and more frequent heatwaves raises questions about the comfort, safety and timing of future holidays.
Heat stress is already the leading cause of weather-related deaths and can worsen cardiovascular disease, diabetes, asthma, mental health conditions and the spread of some infectious diseases, according to the World Health Organization.
Destinations that currently draw visitors for summer city breaks, wine tourism and outdoor festivals may need to adapt as peak travel seasons shift toward spring and autumn.
Some travellers could increasingly seek cooler coastal areas, higher-altitude regions or northern destinations that historically sat outside mainstream holiday routes.
Interestingly, the research suggests that Mediterranean countries may prove more resilient than expected, despite their reputation for intense summer heat.
Turkey, Greece and Italy ranked 6th, 7th and 10th respectively in overall heatwave exposure, indicating fewer extreme heat events compared with parts of western and eastern Europe.
Turkey is projected to experience one annual heatwave lasting around 13 cumulative days, with average temperatures near 37.76°C.
Greece may see the longest individual heatwave durations at around 20 cumulative days, but with only two events per year and average temperatures near 36.92°C.
Italy ranks lowest among the countries analysed, with one heatwave event lasting roughly nine cumulative days.
For travellers, this could mean that destinations already accustomed to managing high temperatures may remain viable, while regions less prepared for prolonged heat may face greater challenges adapting infrastructure, accommodation and visitor services.
Air conditioning capacity, shaded public spaces, water availability and emergency response systems may become increasingly important considerations for both destination planners and visitors.
Longer-term, shifting climate patterns could influence everything from airline schedules and cruise itineraries to the popularity of traditionally shoulder-season travel.
While the projections focus on conditions approaching 2100, the recent Copernicus data shows that Europe’s warming trend is already unfolding, offering an early signal of how travel habits may gradually evolve.
For travellers planning decades ahead — or simply reconsidering when and where to take their next summer break — the changing climate may quietly become as influential as price, accessibility and cultural appeal.
