The U.S. Travel Association has released its updated 2025 Travel Forecast, projecting modest growth in overall spending but a notable decline in international inbound visitors.
The forecast warns that the drop in overseas travel could cost the United States billions of dollars in lost revenue and threaten thousands of jobs across the travel and hospitality sector.
The association reports that domestic travel remains steady, with U.S. residents expected to spend $1.2 trillion in 2025. However, international arrivals are projected to fall from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025, marking the first decline since 2020. International visitors are estimated to spend $173 billion this year, making travel the nation’s largest services export.
Economic Impact and Industry Concerns
The U.S. travel industry contributes $2.9 trillion to GDP and supports nearly one in 10 American jobs, according to the association. A sustained decline in international visitors could affect communities that rely on overseas travelers for economic growth. The forecast suggests that while domestic tourism continues to fuel local economies, the international shortfall presents a major challenge.
“The latest forecast signals both opportunity and warning for America’s travel economy. While domestic travel is holding steady, the continued decline in international visitors threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs. The next decade can be one of extraordinary growth, but only if we act decisively,” said Geoff Freeman, President and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association.
Freeman added that outdated infrastructure, visa delays and new deterrents are diverting travelers to other destinations. “Outdated systems, excessive visa wait times and new travel deterrents are driving global visitors elsewhere. The U.S. must lead by modernizing travel infrastructure, streamlining entry processes and sending a clear message: America is open for business,” said Geoff Freeman.
The forecast notes that 2025 will see stable but limited growth, driven largely by the domestic market. While the number of Americans traveling is expected to hold steady, the decline in international arrivals raises concerns about competitiveness in the global tourism sector. The association stresses that a modernized travel system is vital to reverse the trend and attract more overseas visitors.
Despite the near-term challenges, analysts expect inbound travel to rebound in 2026, supported by major global events hosted in the United States. These include international sporting competitions and cultural gatherings that traditionally drive demand for long-haul travel. Until then, the travel industry remains focused on ensuring that the U.S. maintains its status as a leading destination.
Beyond the financial impact, the association emphasizes that travel fosters cultural understanding, supports community resilience and enriches the lives of travelers. With international arrivals projected to fall in 2025, industry leaders are urging policymakers to act swiftly to strengthen infrastructure and remove barriers. The outcome, they argue, will determine whether the U.S. can sustain its role as a global leader in travel and tourism.
