Italy is projected to welcome 146.3 million tourist arrivals in 2025, an increase of 4.7% compared with 2024, according to new estimates released by research institute Demoskopika at the opening of the TTG Travel Experience in Rimini.
The number of overnight stays is also expected to rise to nearly 476.8 million, up 2.3% from the previous year, confirming the continued strength of Italy’s tourism sector despite inflationary pressures and higher travel costs.
The study forecasts that foreign visitors will drive much of this growth, offsetting slower demand from domestic travelers. International arrivals are expected to reach 82.3 million in 2025 — an 11.3% increase over 2024 — while domestic arrivals are likely to decline by 2.7%, totaling around 64 million.
Demoskopika estimates total tourism-related spending will approach €135 billion, up 6.7% from last year, making tourism one of Italy’s key economic engines.
Foreign Tourism Drives Growth Amid Domestic Slowdown
The report highlights the growing importance of international demand in Italy’s tourism recovery. Foreign visitors are projected to account for 263 million overnight stays, a 3.5% increase, while Italian tourists will generate about 214 million nights — a modest 0.8% rise. Analysts attribute the slowdown in domestic travel to rising costs in transportation, accommodation, and dining, which have discouraged some residents from vacationing within the country.
According to Demoskopika, price inflation remains a significant challenge for the sector. Domestic airfares are expected to climb by an average of 19.4% in 2025, compared with just 0.3% for international flights. Package holidays are projected to increase by 10.3% for domestic destinations and 6% for international ones. Meanwhile, accommodation costs are forecast to rise by 6.5%, and restaurant prices by 3.1%, continuing a trend that has reshaped consumer travel behavior across Europe.
The forecast underscores Italy’s position as one of the most resilient and competitive tourism markets in Europe. Despite price pressures, the country’s mix of cultural heritage, gastronomy, and diverse landscapes continues to attract a strong international audience. The Rimini-based TTG Travel Experience — one of Italy’s leading tourism fairs — opened this week against a backdrop of optimism in the global travel industry, with participants emphasizing the sector’s contribution to national recovery.
Positive Outlook for 2025 Despite Rising Prices
Italy’s projected growth aligns with broader trends seen across southern Europe, where destinations such as Spain and Greece are also reporting steady but slower gains after years of rapid post-pandemic recovery. Spain’s tourism industry, for example, grew only 2.8% this summer, with foreign visitors sustaining most of that momentum. Analysts view Italy’s balanced growth forecast as a sign of consolidation rather than slowdown, with the country focusing increasingly on value-driven tourism and sustainable visitor management.
The Demoskopika report suggests that while the domestic market remains sensitive to economic pressures, Italy’s global appeal will continue to attract visitors from across Europe, North America, and Asia. The continued rebound of long-haul travel and the easing of air capacity constraints are expected to support demand through 2025.
Italy’s tourism sector, a cornerstone of the national economy, has demonstrated remarkable resilience through the pandemic recovery period. The report’s projections suggest that 2025 could mark a return to stable, sustainable growth, fueled by higher-spending international travelers and steady recovery across key markets. If confirmed, these figures would position Italy among Europe’s top-performing travel destinations once again.
